KANSAS CITY — A bevy of experiences from the US Division of Agriculture on Jan. 12 have been seen as largely bearish for wheat and corn futures however supportive for soybeans, relative to commerce expectations.
Chicago Board of Commerce wheat futures closed decrease after the experiences, corn futures have been narrowly combined and soybean futures ended greater, aided by the USDA’s reducing of world ending inventory forecasts amid persisting experiences of dry climate impacting crops in South America.
World Agricultural Provide and Demand Estimates
Carryover of all wheat on June 1, 2022, in the US was forecast at 628 million bus, up 30 million bus, or 5%, from the December forecast however down 26% from 845 million bus in 2021.
Corn carryover on Sept. 1, 2022, was forecast at 1,540 million bus, up 47 million bus, or 3.1%, from December and up 25% from 1,235 million bus a 12 months earlier.
Soybean carryover on Sept. 1, 2022, was forecast at 350 million bus, up 10 million bus, or 2.9%, from December and up 36% from 257 million bus in 2021.
The averages of commerce expectations for the USDA’s carryover projections have been 608 million bus for wheat, 1,472 million bus for corn and 348 million bus for soybeans.
Crop Manufacturing, 2021 Abstract
Corn manufacturing in 2021 was estimated at 15,115,170,000 bus, up 53 million bus from the newest estimate in November and up 7% from 2020. The typical yield set a document excessive at 177 bus per acre, unchanged from November however up 5.6 bus from 2020. Harvested space was estimated at 85,388,000 acres, up 303,000 acres from November and up 3,075,000 acres, or 3.7%, from 2020. The typical of commerce expectations for corn manufacturing was 15,069 million bus, with the USDA estimate squarely inside the full vary of particular person commerce expectations.
Soybean manufacturing was estimated at 4,435,232,000 bus, up 10,290,000 bus, or 2.3%, from November and up 218,930,000 bus, or 5%, from 2020. Common yield was estimated at 51.4 bus per acre, up 0.2 bu from the prior estimate and up 0.4 bu from 2020. The yield was the second highest recorded after 2016’s document setting 51.9 bus per acre. Harvested space was estimated at 86,332,000 acres, down 104,000 acres from the earlier estimate however up 3,729,000 acres, or 4.5%, from 2020. The typical of commerce expectations for soybean manufacturing was 4,433 million bus.
Shares of all wheat on Dec. 1, 2021, have been estimated at 1,389,981,000 bus, down 18% from a 12 months earlier, together with 273,290,000 bus on farms, down 43%, and 1,116,691,000 bus in business storage, down 8%. Indicated September-November disappearance was 384 million bus, down 16% from the identical interval a 12 months earlier.
Dec. 1, 2021, durum shares have been estimated at 43,006,000 bus, down 30% from a 12 months earlier.
Corn shares on Dec. 1, 2021, have been estimated at 11,647,102,000 bus, up 3.1% from a 12 months in the past, together with on-farm shares at 7,234,000,000 bus, up 3%, and off-farm shares at 4,413,102,000 bus, up 4%. Indicated September-November corn disappearance was 4.70 billion bus, down from 4.74 billion bus a 12 months earlier.
Soybean shares on Dec. 1, 2021, have been estimated at 3,149,283,000 bus, up 7% from Dec. 1, 2020, together with 1,522,000,000 bus on farms, up 16%, and 1,627,283,000 bus off farms, down 1%. Indicated September-November disappearance was 1.54 billion bus, down 14% from the identical interval a 12 months earlier.
Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings
US winter wheat planted for harvest in 2022 was estimated at 34,397,000 acres, up 749,000 acres, or 2.2%, from 2021. Laborious crimson winter wheat seeded space was estimated at 23.8 million acres, up 1%, comfortable crimson winter space at 7.07 million acres, up 6%, and white winter wheat space at 3.56 million acres, up 2%. The all-wheat and comfortable crimson winter seedings estimates have been above the typical of commerce expectations at 34.255 million and 6.555 million acres, respectively, whereas the arduous crimson winter and white winter estimates have been beneath the commerce averages of 24.034 million and three.577 million acres, respectively.
Remaining 2021 wheat manufacturing estimates have been issued by the USDA within the Sept. 30 Small Grains 2021 Abstract.